China’s great coal boom is grinding to a halt, and the consequences for both the global climate and hundreds of millions of Chinese factory workers could be dramatic.
Three trends have dominated the debate over China and climate change for the past decade: China’s economy will grow by double digits, the country will burn more coal every year, and global emissions will continue to climb with no end in sight. China has grown to be the world’s second largest economy and the No. 1 emitter of greenhouse gases, consuming nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined.
But preliminary data from 2014 show that China’s coal production just declined 2.5 percent, the first drop since the year 2000. Analysts are now predicting what was almost unimaginable just a few years ago: China’s coal use could peak and begin to decline by 2020.
That dramatic shift would put China on track to meet its treaty pledge of peaking total emissions in 2030. Falling demand for coal reflects strict new pollution controls, growing renewable energy use, and an economic shift away from coal-intensive infrastructure development.
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In another hopeful sign, Chinese media recently reported that the government planned to halt all new approvals for coal-to-gas projects, a carbon- and water-intensive industry that was previously marked for rapid expansion. Those changes are rippling through the country’s markets and mines, with China imposing a blanket moratorium on new coal mines in eastern regions.
Analysts see those measures playing into a constellation of new coal restrictions taking shape throughout the country. Twelve of China’s 34 provinces have already pledged to rein in coal use, and the central government is now calling for caps on coal consumption in the Yangtze and Pearl River Delta, regions that together burn more coal than the entire European Union.
With those indicators all pointing in the right direction, Greenpeace is now calling for the Chinese government to codify the goal of peak coal in the years ahead.
“We are optimistic that China’s coal consumption will peak before 2020, and at least hopeful that this could also be made an official target,” said Myllyvirta.
