How Ukraine can beat Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that the Minsk II ceasefire agreement from February 12 is the road to “a final settlement” of the conflict in Ukraineand although the truce is shaky, Ukraine and the West have a strong interest in seeing it hold.

The West is not going to enter into a proxy war with Russia — and Ukraine’s best hope is to wind down the war and to use the breathing space for much-needed reform.

READ: Vladimir Putin: War with Ukraine would be ‘apocalyptic’ but unlikely

Minsk II confirms the military gains Russia has made in Ukraine and gives Moscow plenty of leverage over Kiev. But compared to war, it is the lesser evil.

In fact, the agreement could be turned to Ukraine’s advantage, providing the country with the breathing space it urgently needs to enact political and economic changes. A stronger Ukrainian state — more functional, less corrupt, and better able to deliver to its citizens — would be much more capable to resist Russian aggression.

It also depends on the West: Firstly, the EU and U.S. must make it as costly as possible for Russia to switch on war as a means to prevent Ukraine’s reform. Unfortunately, the temptation for Russia to use this tool will remain, as military power is its only remaining strength. Moscow must be told in clear terms that the West is going to react to a full return to the battlefield with harsh measures.

The West must also make up for two decades of disinterest in and neglect of Ukraine and start with serious engagement with Kiev to help it to build a decent state, to give Ukrainians a perspective. A “Compact for Ukraine,” announced by Angela Merkel, Barack Obama and other Western leaders in Kiev in April that puts all kind of support into a package would be a good start.

The West doesn’t want to fight Russia in Ukraine militarily. But in response to the military invasion in the east, the West must now swarm the country with help and support. It is in the interest of Ukraine, and in the interest of a European order that has brought the continent the freest, most peaceful and most prosperous epoch of its history.

READ: The Ukraine Crisis: Latest updates

CNN