Should the Supreme Court strike down ACA subsidies in federal marketplaces, most would have Congress act to restore them. Current polls are likely overstating Hillary Clinton’s eventual general election performance. And house effects in 2014 polls were more complicated than you might guess. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, January 28, 2015.
MOST THINK CONGRESS SHOULD CLOSE POTENTIAL ACA GAP – Kaiser Family Foundation: “Though few Americans are paying attention to the pending Supreme Court case over whether the health care law says that people in all states can get financial help to buy health insurance, most say they would want Congress and their state to act to fix potential gaps should the Supreme Court rule in favor of the plaintiffs, the January Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds….[N]early two thirds of the public (64%) say Congress should pass a law making subsidies available in all states….In addition, a majority (59%) of residents in the healthcare.gov states say they would want their state to act to operate its own exchange if the Supreme Court limits the financial assistance to eligible residents in states with state-run exchanges. This view prevails among majorities of Democrats (61%), independents (63%) and Republicans (51%) across the potentially affected states. In comparison, 29 percent of residents in these states, including 34 percent of Republicans, would oppose such a step.” [KFF]
WHY POLLS OVERSTATE CLINTON’S GENERAL ELECTION LEAD – Brendan Nyhan: “Public service announcement: For now, you should ignore surveys testing potential Democrat/Republican matchups for the 2016 presidential election. I’m referring to polls like The Washington Post-ABC News survey released last week, which made headlines with the finding that Hillary Clinton enjoys a big lead against Republicans like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney….Mrs. Clinton’s giant lead wouldn’t hold up in an actual election contest. Her public standing has been artificially inflated by her tenure as secretary of state, which largely removed her from the partisan fray. A campaign would remind many Americans why they used to have unfavorable views of her. The winner of the Republican nomination will gain in stature and consolidate the support of the party in the first part of next year — the reason that the performance of G.O.P. candidates against Mrs. Clinton right now is not especially instructive in analyzing their prospective appeal. (At this point in January 2011, for instance, a McClatchy/Marist poll found President Obama leading Mitt Romney, 51 percent to 38 percent, but Mr. Romney ultimately attracted 47 percent of the vote and narrowly lost the race.) Moreover, despite Mr. Obama’s recent uptick in approval, approximately half of all Americans disapprove of his performance in office. While the growing economy is likely to continue to improve his standing and strengthen the prospects for a Democratic successor, any competent Republican would be expected to outperform the 39-41 percent mustered by G.O.P. candidates in The Post’s polls.” [NYT]
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-Harry Enten and Eric Holthaus explain how meteorologists misjudged the blizzard. @ForecasterEnten, Slate]
-People keep sticking their hands in snowblowers without turning them off first. [WashPost]
