HUFFPOLLSTER: Walker Takes Early Lead In Iowa Caucus

Scott Walker has the early lead in Iowa, as have many other candidates in the past. Support for the use of military force against ISIS grows. And Americans value keeping DHS open over opposing Obama on immigration. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, February 25, 2015.

WALKER LEADS IOWA CAUCUS POLL – “An early look at likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants shows a strong conservative tilt as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters who identify as “very conservative” make up 45 percent of the caucus participants surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac University. Tea Party supporters make up 32 percent of likely caucus-goers and Walker gets 33 percent of that Tea Party vote….Only 8 percent of caucus participants are less likely to vote for Walker because he does not have a college degree, while 82 percent say that makes no difference in their vote. Because his father and brother were presidents, 25 percent say they are less likely to vote for Jeb Bush, but 63 percent say it makes no difference.” [Quinnipiac]

A list of last cycle’s GOP candidates who led in Iowa at some point in 2011 – Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney [Pollster chart]

And it’s not just Iowa… – HuffPost data scientist Natalie Jackson: “A reminder not to get too obsessed with the GOP 2016 candidate of the week… from GOP 2012.” [Twitter]

-Experimental evidence demonstrates white privilege. [NYT via @kwcollins]

-David Rothschild talks about predicting the Oscars and his work at Microsoft. [Upstart]

-Bayes Theorem explained with Lego bricks. [Count Baysie via Flowing Data]

The Huffington Post