ISIS Tactics Questioned as Hostages Dwindle

AMMAN, Jordan — The extremists of the Islamic State managed to parlay their Japanese and Jordanian hostages into 12 days of worldwide publicity. But other than depleting their supply of foreign hostages, did they really accomplish anything?

Analysts who study terrorist groups were skeptical, and many said the militants’ tactics had backfired badly, particularly in Jordan. The extremists apparently killed two Japanese men, but failed to achieve either of their professed goals: $200 million in ransom, and the release of a female Iraqi suicide bomber from death row in Jordan.

Their threat to kill a captive Jordanian air force pilot (and their failure to produce evidence that he was alive) did not achieve the intended effect of undermining support for Jordan’s role in the international coalition bombing the Islamic State. Now even skeptical Jordanians have begun rallying around their government’s position and denouncing the extremists.

That shift comes as the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has nearly run out of Western or other foreign hostages, as fewer aid workers and journalists dare to enter Syrian territory. Last August, when the American-led bombing campaign began, the group held at least 23 Western hostages; now they are believed to have four hostages viewed as prominent internationally, including two Westerners. The extremists continue to hold an untold number of Syrians.

A visual guide to the crisis in Iraq and Syria.

“They disguise themselves as drivers or fixers offering to help journalists work in the south of Turkey, in order to establish good ties with them for a future plan of kidnapping them to the other side of the border,” said Mr. Said.

Most experienced journalists were aware of the risks in Turkey, and so far none had been kidnapped there. “It is not only ISIS and its network that poses a risk, but also self-motivated bounty hunters,” he said.

Reporting was contributed by Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon; Karam Shoumali from Istanbul; Michael S. Schmidt from Washington; and Martin Fackler from Tokyo.

A version of this article appears in print on February 2, 2015, on page A6 of the New York edition with the headline: ISIS Tactics Questioned as Hostages Dwindle. Order Reprints| Today’s Paper|Subscribe

The New York Times