A deal aimed at imposing a ceasefire in Ukraine from this Sunday was concluded following talks between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Yet despite 17 hours of talks in the Belarus capital of Minsk, during which President Vladimir Putin was seen breaking pencils on his desk in frustration, some of the agreement’s most important provisions have yet to be clarified.
And although German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande proclaimed themselves satisfied with the deal, both should know the chances of a durable settlement remain slim.
Were the bloodshed to resume — or, as is more likely, never stop — what happens inside Ukraine largely depends on Putin; barring direct Western military involvement which remains unthinkable, the Russian leader maintains what strategy experts call “escalation dominance,” namely the ability to decide how much or little he wants to apply pressure, in the re knowledge that, even if Moscow miscalculates, Russia will not pay a heavy price.
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And, as is often the case in such situations, the longer the conflict goes on, the less chances anyone has in controlling its protagonists. Russia is already finding it increasingly difficult to control ethnic Russian rebels in Ukraine, and that difficulty will only increase as times goes by. A large influx of weapons into Ukraine will also mean an expansion in the already considerable domestic black market for such weapons and a further boost for a variety of right-wing Ukrainian militias, many of which are already fighting alongside Ukrainian regular soldiers. Russia’s allegation that Ukraine is under the control of “fascists” is nonsense but, if Ukraine seeks deeper into violence, extremists will increasingly come to the fore.
It is this sort of ghastly, ghoulish fate which the deal that France and Germany brokered is designed to avoid. But the chances are that what was agreed is simply too little and too late to postpone a looming Ukrainian nightmare.
