Jordan has executed two imprisoned jihadists in retaliation for the murder of its pilot, Lt Moaz al-Kassasbeh, by ISIS, which calls itself the Islamic State. The executions follow Jordan’s initial agreement to release one of the jihadists, Sajida al-Rishawia demand made by the group through a video statement by one of its Japanese hostagesin return for the pilot.
The release of a gruesome video by ISIS on February 4, showing al-Kassasbeh being burnt alive triggered the Jordanian decision to carry out the executions few hours later. In doing so, Jordan has dragged itself deeper into the Syrian conflict and exposed further weaknesses in the strategy followed by the U.S.-led international coalition set up to fight ISIS.
Neither of the jihadists executed by Jordan are connected with ISIS in its current incarnation, but with al Qaeda. For example, one of them is Ziad Karbuli, an Iraqi national linked with the late al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and who had been detained in Jordan on death row since 2006. Through their execution, therefore, Jordan has inadvertently strengthened the link between ISIS and al Qaeda.
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Jordan’s revenge, then, marks a major shift in the war against the Islamic State. It is a shift that is likely to change the nature of the actors in the Syrian conflict as ISIS and al-Nusra move closer to one another. It is also a shift that will trigger wider regional repercussions, and drag members of the anti-ISIS coalition into an open-ended confrontation on a wider scale than before. In the midst of all this, the moderate Syrian opposition risks becoming extinct.
The international coalition therefore simply cannot afford to continue to act in the Syrian conflict without having in place a harmonized, long-term, and proactive strategy that takes into account the urgent need to end the conflict through a political-military plan rather than a reactive one based on irrational retaliation and limited military activity.
