The chaos in Yemen is cause for concern far beyond the country’s borders.
For the United States and its allies, Yemen’s government has been a key ally in the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemen-based group linked to attacks such as the recent slaughter at French magazine Charlie Hebdo.
So what’s next for Yemen?
For the moment, uncertainty rules. Beyond it yawns the prospect of a political vacuum and growing sectarian rift that terror groups such as AQAP could exploit.
Meda Al Rowas, a senior analyst at IHS Country Risk, told CNN that unless Hadi is reinstated, the chances of the country avoiding armed conflict are slim.
“Our forecast is really civil war in Yemen because we have a lot of nonstate armed groups who are likely to compete over territory and have a lot of competing agendas,” she said.
Who is in charge right now really depends on where in Yemen you are, she said.
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Since Hadi’s resignation, there has been a lot of anger against the Houthis in parts of the country, said Al Rowas, the IHS Country Risk analyst.
While Hadi wasn’t able to unify the country while in power, she said, since the Houthi takeover of Sanaa, he has become the popular symbol of anti-Houthi sentiment across southern and central Yemen.
Many there are calling for his return, she said.
A chief flashpoint for popular anger may be the central Marib province, she said. There have already been some low-level confrontations, and tribes are mobilizing in the area.
Large-scale protests have also been seen in Aden, the main seaport in the country’s south, where the current chaos plays into the hands of the secession movement.
7 things to know about Yemen
CNN’s Tim Lister, Nick Paton Walsh and Jomana Karadsheh contributed to this report.
