But lest anyone declare victory, predictions of ISIS’ demise are wildly optimistic. ISIS still controls some 50,000 square kilometers of Iraq as well as up to 30% of Syrian territory and at least 10% if its population. To the west of Baghdad, it is still on the offensive in Anbar, and recently raided checkpoints on the Iraqi-Saudi border. Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby said last week: “We’re only six to seven months into this thing….This is going to be a long struggle.”
A senior official at the U.S. State Department echoed Kirby’s line this week, saying ISIS’ expulsion from Kobani is part of the “early phase of a multi-year campaign.” ISIS is “a very adaptive organization,” the official said — and terms like “turning point” were to be avoided.
Even so, there’s quite a contrast between September, when U.S. officials said the fall of Kobani to ISIS seemed inevitable, and Kurds celebrating on the city’s streets this week. ISIS chose Kobani as a symbol of its virility, even sending hostage John Cantile there to make a video about the group’s inevitable victory. Kobani was a recruitment poster in ISIS’ efforts to draw more foreign fighters to the Caliphate.
ISIS continued to reinforce its presence in the town despite constant airstrikes. General John Allen, U.S. coordinator of the campaign against ISIS, said in November that the group had “impaled itself” on Kobani. The State Department official said ISIS’ losses there — likely running into four figures — could help counter the messaging that has attracted foreign fighters.
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ISIS also controls a number of small oil fields and an arsenal of weaponry captured in both Iraq and Syria. And it still has money. Iraqi Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Reuters he estimates ISIS has looted $456 million from banks in Mosul, Tikrit and Baiji since June. And it has set up a rudimentary taxation system in the main cities it controls, as well as a fearsome intelligence apparatus.
But ISIS is finding the job of controlling much harder than that of attacking. It has needed an expensive and labor-intensive mix of coercion, intimidation and policing to run Mosul, where the Iraqi government still pays the bulk of state employees’ salaries.
Under pressure on several fronts, “ISIS now has to think very carefully about where it puts its forces,” says Soltvedt.
CNN’s Barbara Starr, Laura Koran and Raja Razek contributed to this report.
