It didn’t work.
The deal was signed, but the violence has only worsened since then, so on Wednesday, Ukraine and its Western allies will sit down once again with Russia in Minsk to try to stop the violence.
No one seems hopeful, not even the European leaders who are pushing the combatants to talk.
“There is anything but an assurance of success, I have to be very clear about that,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday in Washington, standing alongside U.S. President Barack Obama.
Neither of them harbored any illusions about the Minsk Protocol signed in September.
–
Eyal is even more blunt.
“There is no way the Ukrainians will be able to roll back the Russians,” he said.
The result instead will be a standoff in which Ukraine can hold the line against the rebels, but nothing more.
“We will end up in a sort of proxy war,” Eyal said. “A semi-permanent stalemate is the most likely outcome. It could last for years to come.”
