Hundreds of new Russian aircraft, tanks and missiles are rolling off assembly lines. Russian jets roar through European skies under NATO’s wary eye. Tens of thousands of troops take part in war games showing off the military’s readiness for all-out war.
The muscle flexing suggests that Russia’s economic woes so far are having no impact on the Kremlin’s ambitious military modernization program.
Most Russian economic sectors face a 10 percent cut this year as Russia heads into recession. The military budget, meanwhile, rose by 33 percent to about 3.3 trillion rubles (some $50 billion). The buildup reflects President Vladimir Putin’s apparent readiness to raise the ante in a showdown with the West over Ukraine — but it is unclear whether Russia can afford the modernization drive amid slumping oil prices and Western sanctions.
The new Russian military doctrine, endorsed by Putin in December, names NATO as a top threat to Russia and lays out a response to what the Kremlin sees as the alliance’s expansion into Russia’s sphere of interests. In the Ukraine crisis, Moscow for the first time demonstrated its new capacity for what experts call “hybrid” warfare, a combination of military force with a degree of deniability, sleek propaganda and political and economic pressure.
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Its security enhanced by a new-look military, the Kremlin can be expected to pursue a defiant course in Ukraine and may raise the stakes further if the peace process fails.
The threat for Putin — who has insisted that Russia will not be drawn into a costly arms race with the West — is whether the massive military buildup will stretch the nation’s economic potential beyond the limit.
Despite such challenges, the Kremlin made it clear that it will not cut corners on defense.
“The task set by the president not to allow anyone to get a military advantage over Russia will be fulfilled no matter what,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with the top brass last week.
