Q&A: ISIS threat to Japan sheds light on harsh realities of kidnappings, ransom

In a video posted Tuesday to social media, a black-clad ISIS militant stood over two men he said were Japanese citizens. Both would die, he said, unless the Japanese government paid the Islamist extremist group $200 million within 72 hours.

That ISIS wants ransom isn’t unexpected. But a few things — like the public nature and staggering amount of the request — make it stand out.

Has ISIS asked for ransoms before?

Yes. It’s hard to quantify all the examples, because hostage takers in ambitious militant groups like ISIS rarely make their demands public. But just as kidnappings are the norm for such groups, so is asking for ransom.

One documented example is the case of James Foley, an American journalist abducted in northern Syria in November 2012. ISIS would later demand 100 million euros (about $132 million) for his release, said Richard Byrne, a spokesman for the news website GlobalPost that Foley freelanced for before.

Neither GlobalPost, nor Foley’s family, nor the U.S. government paid that amount. Even if they had, there’s no telling if ISIS would have kept its word and freed Foley. Instead, the group not only beheaded Foley, but recorded his killing and put it online for the world to see.

In Japan’s case, such a prisoner swap isn’t an option. It’s not as if the country has a lot of suspected ISIS members in its custody. So Tokyo’s bargaining chips might consist more of doing something like not giving $200 million to those invested in the anti-ISIS fight — a pledge that Abe said Tuesday he’s not willing to rescind.

So without a ransom, is there hope for the Japanese hostages?

ISIS’ history shows there may not be a lot, but it’s possible that there will be talks with the ISIS hostage takers. Japan can point to the fact that unlike the United States and Britain, it’s not involved directly with the military effort in Iraq or Syria. ISIS might surprise everyone by freeing the Japanese pair as a goodwill gesture.

But absent a last-ditch diplomatic effort, Japan may have to rely on military forces from allies in the West, the Middle East or elsewhere to rescue its citizens.

Whatever the approach, time is clearly running out.

CNN