It’s hard to imaginebut truethat the raging conflict between Ukraine and Russia, or at least Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels, all started with a humble trade agreement.
As tensions run high over a Russian aid convoy described by Western leaders as a provocative incursion, reports of direct Russian military activity inside Ukraine and Ukrainian fears of an outright invasion, it’s time to look back on how we got here, and where things are headed:
How it started
While the roots of the crisis run quite deep, what’s happening now began to unfold in earnest in the fall of 2013.
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Fall and winter will slow the fighting. Kaplan said the colder seasons in Ukraine mean mud and mud means a slower tempo for military operations. Just don’t expect total silence, he says — there will still be fighting.
Moscow will try to squeeze Ukraine. Putin will slow the flow of crucial natural gas and goods into Ukraine, putting further pressure on Kiev’s economy and war-fighting ability. “The Russians will try everything to weaken the regime in Kiev,” Kaplan said.
The West has some soul-searching to do. Sanctions applied by the United States and Europe against Russia have so far only played into Putin’s playbook, enhancing the image of an aggrieved Russia trying to shake off its detractors, Conley said. Putin’s strategy of assembling a larger Russian empire has significant ramifications for Estonia and Latvia, Conley said, raising questions about just what the West will do to stop Russia if Putin chooses to further extend his reach.
And what will it take to end this? Ukraine is a linchpin of Putin’s plans for Russia, whether it’s reassembling a historical empire or shoring up the Russian economy, Conley says. So whatever happens must support that. Kaplan says Putin can’t pull back without gaining assurances that Ukraine will never become part of NATO. Ukraine, he said, needs assurances about its sovereignty and energy security.
