Are we ready for the next global epidemic?

In 2003, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) crossed the world, originating in Asia and reaching Canada in less than a day. In 2012, a new virus emerged in the Middle East and entered the global arena soon after. Aptly named Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS -CoV) it continues to spread today, albeit slowly, with almost 1,000 people having been infected to date, including 356 dead as of 5 February 2015.

In 2014, the disease on everyone’s mind was Ebola. The Ebola virus has infected almost 23,000 people across nine countries to date, with more than 9,000 deaths as of 10 February 2015. However, despite the high number of infections, the spread of Ebola remains technically an outbreak, not a pandemic, because it hasn’t spread globally.

“It will only be over when the last person with Ebola is either dead or recovered without infecting other people,” stated Peter Piot, who co-discovered the virus in the 1970s, at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos last month. But he warned that risks from such outbreaks were far from over, saying: “There will be other Ebola outbreaks and there will be other epidemics, not least influenza.”

But is the world ready?

Hundreds of infectious diseases continue to plague the planet in both urban and rural locations, from ones spread by insects, such as Chikungunya, which is currently sweeping through the Americas, to those spread by water, such as cholera, or human contact, such as Ebola. “Infectious organisms can travel in humans, food and insects … you can’t stop disease from crossing borders,” says David Heymann, head of the Centre for Global Health Security at think tank Chatham House.

“If we had another flu pandemic we would be fairly well set to run models quickly,” says Eckstrand. Given the likelihood of another pandemic, Barclay’s team see it fit in this case to develop disease-specific antivirals and vaccines against influenza when it arrives. In 2009, the development of an H1N1 vaccine slowed down the spread of the virus during the second wave of its transmission. The time taken for development meant it wasn’t available during the first big wave of infections.

At the core of it all, the global monitoring systems in place are constantly being tuned to spot any strange, or new, occurrences.

“I look at GOARN as a safety net,” concludes Heymann. GOARN is growing its capability to both spot and control disease outbreaks, with a network of labs, provision of advice and assistance when a new outbreak occurs. It is also building capacity within countries through improved labs, technology and skilled staff, to enable systems to be in place worldwide to tackle new or emerging infections spreading throughout a population.

“Countries that have had Ebola are more ready to deal with it, like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),” says Heymann of the country where the disease was first identified in 1976. Congolese communities now have a word for the disease and messages are in place to send out when a new outbreak occurs.

Whilst we may not be quite ready to prevent disease outbreaks, it seems we are, at least, more ready than ever before.

CNN