The first thing for the West to understand is that, in the short run, no amount of sanctions will force Russia to leave Ukrainenot until the Kremlin achieves victory, which Putin appears to have defined as Ukraine’s almost unconditional capitulation. Until then, any “peace initiatives” and “accords” signed by Russia are not worth the paper they are written on.
Having raised the propaganda pitch to a “motherland-in-danger” level unheard of since World War II, Putin has been telling Russians that the war in Ukraine is about “defending our independence and our right to exist,” and that the Ukrainians are nothing more than the first line of NATO’s attack. The popular mobilization to protect the motherland from the alleged “NATO aggression” has become the key to Putin’s popularity and, by extension, to the regime’s legitimacy. Climbing down from such rhetorical heights without a clear victory in sight, especially during an economic crisis, could be very dangerous politically.
–
Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.
Join us on Facebook.com/CNNOpinion.
