Alexandre Afonso is a Lecturer in Comparative Politics at King’s College London. His work analyzes austerity reforms in southern Europe. The views expressed in this commentary are solely his.
As expected, the radical left party Syriza was the big winner of the Greek elections, coming only two seats short of an absolute majority in parliament. But it’s unclear if new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will be able to effectively pursue his anti-austerity agenda and renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout with creditors — and he will surely need to make a number of concessions to its coalition partners, the Independent Greeks, a right-wing anti-immigration party.
What does this victory mean for Greece and for the debt-ridden countries of southern Europe? For Greece, this is a decisive step in the demise of PASOK and New Democracy, the parties that have been in power for 40 years.
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It is a good way to stay in office in the short term, but it is a terrible way to keep votes in the medium and long term, because no choice is presented to citizens. Whoever they vote for, the policies will be the same, and they will be painful. Abstention and apathy grows and voters become attracted to challengers promising an alternative. As the electoral base of centrist parties shrinks, the only way for them to remain in power is to band together to compensate for the loss of voters, until this electoral base becomes too small to stay in government.
Syriza is the first challenger to break the Greek political cartel. Greece may be a special case because of the extent of its economic collapse, but other movements elsewhere are also looming on the horizon.
In Spain, Podemos has been leading the polls in spite of the fact that it was created less than a year ago. In Italy, Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star movement has made a breakthrough in the last European elections. Others will surge if politicians continue to believe that democracy can be put on hold to satisfy markets.
