How CEOs predict the future

In the lead-up to war in Ukraine, a few prescient companies increased their presence in the country, securing an influential position as competitors fled.

The ability to foresee major events and their effects might seem a tall order, but for global businesses to thrive in a hyper-connected world, “ripple intelligence” is becoming an essential quality for modern CEOs.

In The CEO Report, based on 152 in-depth interviews with CEOs across the world and different industries, conducted by Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford and leading headhunters Heidrick & Struggles, this quality is defined as “the ability to see the interactions of business contexts like ripples moving across a pond.”

Ripple intelligence, according to the report, “enables CEOs to envision how trends and contexts may intersect and change direction, so they can anticipate disruptions, make time to plan, and protect against being blindsided by unexpected events. Ripple intelligence also makes CEOs aware of their own impact and how it may influence contexts that might otherwise seem remote and unconnected.”

“Doubt is part of the ‘humanization’ of the CEO, a positive, generative state that should be embraced and utilized, not feared,” the report notes, adding that doubt facilitates greater collaboration and openness.

As one interviewee puts it, the modern CEO must “get comfortable with discomfort.”

As uncertainties multiply, so do the opportunities.

CNN