AP-GfK finds growing optimism about the economy and the president. A new NH poll continues to show a competitive GOP field. And CQ Researcher dives deep into the state of political polling. This is HuffPollster for Monday, February 9, 2015.
GROWING APPROVAL FOR ECONOMY AND PRESIDENT OBAMA – Emily Swanson: “Americans’ views of President Barack Obama have improved slightly in the past two months, and opinions are more positive about the direction of the country and the health of the economy, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds… Forty-seven percent of those surveyed approve of how Obama is doing his job, compared with 41 percent in December, and 51 percent approve of his handling of unemployment, compared with 44 percent before. Nearly half say the economy is good now, while 41 percent thought that in December. In December 2013, only one-third called the economy good. Approval of the way Obama is handling the economy improved slightly, 41 percent to 45 percent, over the past two months…But people still feel that their own recovery is lagging, the poll shows, with only 35 percent saying their own family has completely or mostly recovered from economic downturn. Just 27 percent see the job market where they live as being most of the way to recovery, far less than the number that thinks big businesses (55 percent) and the stock market (53 percent) have bounced all the way back. In spite of growing optimism about politics and the economy, 8 in 10 people questioned have little confidence that Obama and Republicans in Congress can work together to solve the country’s problems.” [AP]
How high is the ceiling on Obama’s approval? – David Lauter: “President Obama’s standing with the public likely will continue its recent upward trend following the latest positive economic news, but new data on the country’s polarized politics suggests he’ll soon bump up against a low ceiling. The labor market data released by the federal government on Friday showed the best three months of job growth since the mid-1990s, an increase in the percentage of Americans who are working and the first signs of wage growth. That’s the kind of good news that usually sends presidential approval ratings upward. But political polarization exerts a powerful pull in the other direction: Much like President George W. Bush before him, Obama faces near unanimous disapproval from opposing partisans that is deeply dug in and unlikely to change….In the past half century, the only years that showed more polarization than Obama’s sixth year were his — and Bush’s — fourth and fifth years. All of that suggests that Obama’s overall approval rating probably will not rise much above 50% for any sustained period.” [LA Times]
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-What Microsoft’s purchase of Revolution Analytics could mean for R statistics. [InfoWorld]
-John Sides remembers political scientist Ray Wolfinger. [WashPost]
