Oscars 2015: Who will win (and who should win)

Best SongThe Nominees”Everything Is Awesome,” The Lego Movie”Glory,” Selma”Grateful,” Beyond the Lights”I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glen Campbell . . . I’ll Be Me”Lost Stars,” Begin Again

Should and Will Win

“Glory,” by John Legend and Common, has entered the Hot 100. It brings the soul of “Selma” home. Its message is vital. Its creators are black. And it’s time.

Oscar’s best actresses of all time

Best Director

The Nominees
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Narrowing the Field

Just like the Best Picture race, it’s between “Boyhood” and “Birdman.” That means Linklater, in his most personal film, takes on Iñárritu in his. In the past three years, Best Picture and Director have not matched up. It might happen again. Yikes!

Snubs

By now, you know I’m going to say Ava DuVernay, who by any standard of quality measurement should be there for “Selma.” Oh, wait, she’s black.

Surprises

If anyone but Linklater or Iñárritu wins.

But seriously, 18 comedians who went dramatic for Oscar

Snubs

Since 2009, the Academy has allowed itself up to 10 nominees for Best Picture. And yet this year, it chose only eight, suggesting a thin field. Really! “Foxcatcher” is nominated for acting, directing and writing, but it’s not worthy of Best Picture? Indelible indies such as “Under the Skin,” “Nightcrawler,” “Snowpiercer,” “Locke,” “Mr. Turner,” “A Most Violent Year” and “Dear White People” got shafted, along with studio releases of fierce intelligence (“Interstellar,” “Inherent Vice,” “Gone Girl”).

Surprises

In the race between “Boyhood” and “Birdman,” I see only one dark horse in the bunch. That would be “The Imitation Game,” nominated in all the right categories (picture, director, writer, actor, supporting actress and editor). More crucially, Harvey Weinstein has put all his company’s marketing weight into turning an Academy vote for “The Imitation Game” into a vote for Alan Turing, the computer pioneer and gay martyr played by Benedict Cumberbatch. Gay leaders and technocrats are featured in the ads. Google chairman Eric Schmidt is quoted as saying, “Every time you use a phone or a computer, you use the ideas that Alan Turing invented.” Too much? Weinstein knows the Oscar game better than anyone, bringing home “The King’s Speech” over “The Social Network” in 2011 and “The Artist” over “The Descendants” the following year. Never discount the Harvey factor.

Should Win

“Boyhood.” Richard Linklater filmed this story of a Texas boy (Ellar Coltrane) growing up over 12 years, from six to 18, with the same cast and the same artistry. The naysayers claim it’s a gimmick. They’re wrong. It’s a classic.

Will Win

The signs point to “Birdman.” The Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild put it on top. Director Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s tale of a washed-up actor (Michael Keaton) making a comeback explodes with creativity. The naysayers claim it’s style over substance. They’re wrong. It’s a classic. But “Boyhood” has my heart, for keeps.

For the original story, visit RollingStone.com

Copyright © 2011 Rolling Stone.

CNN