Since invading and annexing Crimea almost one year ago, the Russian president has been running rings around the European Union, NATO and the Obama administration.
It is not that Putin is particularly clever — on the contrary, his behavior suggests he is paranoid, impulsive and insecure. But he has benefited from the greater weaknesses of his opponents.
So as he considers his response to Europe’s ideas for a new cease-fire and a “comprehensive settlement” in eastern Ukraine, what will Putin be thinking? What does he know?
Putin knows, for a start, that the Europeans are divided and running scared. Only two EU countries — Britain and France — are military powers of any consequence — but they have zero appetite for conflict, direct or indirect, with Russia.
Francois Hollande, France’s weak and unpopular president, seems to be waving a white flag before hostilities have even commenced.
“If we don’t manage to find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it’s called war,” Hollande said after meeting Putin on Friday.
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Would the U.S. really go to war with Russia to rescue, say, Estonia or Norway? Putin does not know the answer to this question, but neither, if they are truthful, do NATO’s political masters.
What Putin does know, or thinks he knows, is that, given Barack Obama’s attempts to wind up overseas conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and his reluctance to get involved in new ones such as Syria, the U.S. President will be loath to confront Russia militarily in Ukraine in what could quickly become an uncontrollable, escalating proxy war.
Pressure is growing from John McCain and others in Congress, egged on by jittery east Europeans, to supply arms to Kiev. Last week the administration deliberately leaked news that it was discussing this option to the New York Times. It was a classic pressure tactic.
But so far, the only people who feel scared and pressured are the European allies. Putin has not blinked, while Kremlin spokesmen and propagandists say supplying U.S. arms would confirm their view that Russia is under attack by the West.
Maybe a new peace pact will be agreed later this week in Minsk. Maybe it will even be made to stick, assuming Moscow can be trusted. Putin may decide to bank his winnings. On the other hand, if he does not like the deal, he can walk away. Putin knows he has the upper hand. So why stop now?
