It’s hard to imaginebut truethat the raging conflict between Ukraine and Russia, or at least Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels, all started with a humble trade agreement.
As tensions run high more than a year later and Europe now tries to broker a new peace deal between Moscow and Kiev, it’s time to look back on how we got here, and where things are headed:
How it started
While the roots of the crisis run quite deep, what’s happening now began to unfold in earnest in the fall of 2013.
That’s when then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych scuttled a trade deal with the European Union that would have pulled the country, so recently a satellite of the Soviet Union, toward Europe in the latest twirl of a dance that has lasted centuries.
Instead, Yanukovych jumped at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to buy $15 billion in debt from his cash-strapped government and cut the price of vital natural gas to the country.
Yanukovych’s decision set off protests in Ukraine’s more Europe-leaning west calling for the government’s ouster. Security forces responded harshly, beating protesters and firing live ammunition into demonstrations, resulting in several deaths. As clashes spread, so did international anger over the situation.
By late February, Yanukovych had fled to Russia, the government had fallen and a new pro-Europe government had formed to replace it.
That, in turn, set off pro-Russian demonstrations in Crimea, a semi-autonomous Ukrainian republic and the location of a major Russian navy base.
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“This is a military that really hasn’t had any influx of new military equipment since the breakup of the Soviet Union. It’s a country that gave up its nuclear weapons under this promise of freedom and integrity,” he said.
“And now I think the United States is in a position to say, ‘Look, you need to have the tools and the ability to defend yourself.’ We’re not talking about giving Ukraine weapons necessary to invade into Russia, just to defend their territorial integrity.”
Putin fears U.S. weapons. Putin understands only “shear force” and met with the European leaders to buy time, as the White House weighs sending weapons to Ukraine, said former President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili.
“It is not by any accident that Putin started to talk now because he learned that American weapons are on their way,” Saakashvili said. “He will again to try to win time. He will try to seize the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine and then try to force Ukrainian forces to flee and go for a coup in Kiev.”
All-out war unlikely. While Putin’s approval rating among Russians is sky-high, polling last year showed that the Russian people aren’t wild about an out-and-out invasion of Ukraine, said Robert D. Kaplan, the chief geopolitical analyst for Stratfor. “He may be a dictator, but dictators care about public opinion as much as democrats,” he said in an interview last year.
What will it take to end this?
Ukraine is a linchpin of Putin’s plans for Russia, whether it’s reassembling a historical empire or shoring up the Russian economy, Conley says. So whatever happens must support that. Kaplan says Putin can’t pull back without gaining assurances that Ukraine will never become part of NATO. Ukraine, he said, needs assurances about its sovereignty and energy security.
Another analyst imagined three possible outcomes: A slow-simmering war that lasts for many years. A ceasefire that doesn’t entirely satisfy Moscow and Kiev but essentially creates a frozen conflict for a long time. Or a political settlement where Russia withdraws forces from Ukraine and Kiev recognizes the separatists, Kofman said.
“That is the best likely outcome but most difficult to achieve politically,” Kofman said of the last scenario.
