The scene is like something from a horror movie. Saturday, a known supporter of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria posted a video online of one of two Japanese hostages holding up what looks like a picture of his beheaded compatriot. The video follows one released earlier in the week featuring a militant threatening to kill the two Japanese citizens if a $200 million ransom wasn’t paid within 72 hours.
They are the kind of images many Japanese hoped they would not have to deal with. After all, Japan is currently barred by its “peace constitution” from engaging in offensive military action. Yet despite this, ISIS has apparently decided that Japan is an adversary.
This is likely in part because Japan is a close ally of the United States, one that also has a strong interest in the stability of the Middle East. Moreover, during his recent visit to Israel, Jordan and Egypt, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged $200 million in non-military aid to nations dealing with ISIS.
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Achieving all this will be challenging and will require investing significant political and bureaucratic capital. And while Prime Minister Abe’s party has just won a resounding victory in a snap election, Japan is also dealing with an aging population and stagnant economy, so it is unclear how much in terms of energy and resources the government will have to spend on refocusing the country’s security posture.
But as much as anything, the debate over security — and this week’s tragic hostage situation — are a reminder that Japan may increasingly find itself and its citizens in the firing line. A more assertive policy will expose Japan to more conflict and heighten its exposure to terrorism — no small shift to handle in a remarkably safe country that for decades has turned its back on military conflict.
How the government deals with this challenge — and, more immediately, the aftermath of this week’s tragedy — will shape the direction of Japan’s national security, and its ability to protect this country’s citizens.
