An elite consensus on the “New Way of War” has been emerging for some time now. Among defense policy experts, think tanks, echoed at Aspen and Davos, the way forward seems clear. The future belongs to cyberwarfare and includes a terrorism problem that will be dealt with by drones and SEALs, and the need to be prepared for the possibility, however remote, of a large-scale naval and aviation campaign in the Far East against a rising China.
This new American way of war—clean, precise, and (unless things go very bad with China) low-casualty — seems to capture the persistent technologist mood of America.
Unfortunately, reality seems uninterested in conforming to this strongly held belief. We see instead the future of warfare unfolding in a very different way: as the Israelis struggle against a well-trained and organized resistance movement, Hamas, in Gaza; as ISIS fights against not only the Arab Iraqis and Syrians, but also in Iraqi Kurdistan, Lebanon and even Jordan; while in the Ukraine, we see local separatists being either assisted, or used as “useful idiots,” by the forces of President Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In short, these are not the wars we were anticipating.
And yet here they are. So what are some common characteristics of these wars? And how should the United States respond to this new reality?
First, they are in general low-tech and manpower intensive
Low-tech does not mean “no-tech,” and even a 40-year old Soviet tank can be a significant weapon if one is not prepared for it. Further, there will be “islands” of technology that are equivalent or even superior to that used by Western militaries. But this is not a universally high technology force. This manpower is also highly trained, or at least has a critical core that is highly trained, whether ISIS cadres or the “little green men” (Russian intelligence officers) of the Ukraine. We should expect to encounter professionals.
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Let’s be clear, it is a new capability that must be integrated into warfare, as was the combustion engine and the radio. But it doesn’t fundamentally shift what war is and will be. Warfare has absorbed far more earth-shaking developments (airpower and nuclear weapons) without changing its fundamental character.
War will continue to be fought over issues of fear, honor and interest. Despite increasing automation, it will be fought primarily by young men (despite the increasing presence of older men and young women). The next war will likely be very recognizable to someone who fought in one millennia ago.
It is possible that our next war will resemble nothing that anyone has predicted, perhaps a naval battle over the Arctic, or — God forbid — a nuclear exchange. And yes, it is possible that war could emerge between China on one side and South Korea, Japan or even the United States on the other in the South China Sea, though it is not overstatement to claim that this would bring about the end of the world economy as we currently understand it. But the most likely outcome, barring some shock to the world system, is that future wars will strongly resemble those occurring today.
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