Oscar ballots closed Tuesday, which means you can submit your predictions without worrying about how impertinent op-eds, box-office outcomes or dutiful fact-checks will impact the race. HuffPost Entertainment’s award-season watchers, Christopher Rosen and Matthew Jacobs, are cashing in their final predictions for Hollywood’s biggest honors. With so many major categories locked up, you won’t find much contention here — which is what you want when casting your office-pool ballot, right?
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”), Laura Dern (“Wild”), Keira Knightley (“The Imitation Game”), Emma Stone (“Birdman”), Meryl Streep (“Into the Woods”)
Should Win: We’ve been on the Patricia Arquette bandwagon since July, and the last seven months have done nothing to dim that enthusiasm. She’s the highlight of “Boyhood,” and gives what might be the year’s best lead-actress performance, albeit in the clothes of a supporting role. This is a particularly strong group of actresses — I could make the case of any one of them actually winning — but give this one to Arquette and let her make another awkward, heartfelt speech while reading off an index card.
Will Win: Arquette. — CR
Should Win: I prefer to pretend Laura Dern has been jointly recognized for “Wild” and “The Fault in Our Stars,” in which she gives an even more heartrending performance. Since she wasn’t, it’s hard to deny the stamina of Patricia Arquette. Nominees don’t need a requisite “Oscar scene” to make their victories worthwhile, but Arquette’s breakdown as she sends her son to college is both understated enough to destroy our emotions and showy enough to seal this category’s envelope without even tabulating the votes.
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Should Win: In a just world, Best Picture would be a race between “Boyhood” and “Selma,” with “Birdman” running a respectable third. In reality, “Birdman” is the heavy favorite for Best Picture, leaving the other two films in the dust. But this is a blurb about who should win, and that’s “Boyhood,” a movie that captures growing up better than even a look back at your Facebook history.
Will Win: “Birdman” has won so many guild awards that I’ve lost track. It’s a movie about the power of movies. It’s your 2015 Best Picture winner. — CR
Should Win: “Selma” is stirring, “Birdman” is clever and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is far-reaching — but “Boyhood” is the defining movie of 2014. It’s intelligent but unpretentious, relatable but idiosyncratic, and a genuine singularity. If anything else wins, then the Academy has lost sign of that.
Will Win:“Boyhood” plays enough sentimental chords for the “Birdman” guild prizes to remain a footnote in this year’s awards season. We know sentiment often triumphs at the Oscars, anyway (see: “The King’s Speech” over “The Social Network,” “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan,” “Forrest Gump” over “Pulp Fiction”). — MJ
