Iran-backed rebels of the Shiite Houthi sect sparked alarm in Washington after seizing a presidential palace in the volatile Sunni-majority nation, in what officials called a coup.
There are now signs that the rebels — which have been resistant to American anti-terror efforts despite a common antipathy to al Qaeda — and the U.S.-backed government of President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi have agreed a deal to end the crisis.
READ: Yemen takeover threatens downward sectarian spiral
But the situation remains volatile and a reminder of how the intricate, shifting and treacherous tribal and sectarian divides of the Middle East often confound U.S. efforts to frame coherent anti-terror policy.
Obama has spent much of his administration sponsoring a political transition designed to restore stability in Yemen and to cap the sectarianism that sustains al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Washington has offered counter-terrorism training to the government in the Yemeni capital Sanaa and has also mounted a campaign of drone strikes against key AQAP leaders.
The group is regarded by U.S. officials as the most potent offspring of Osama bin Laden’s jihadist movement and has claimed responsibility for the attack on the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo this month.
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The level of Iran’s support for the Houthi movement, beyond rhetorical backing is in question. Tehran’s intelligence resources are already stretched by the Syrian crisis and its finances have been hampered by western nuclear sanctions and the fall in the price of oil.
Iran, however, has spent years spreading its influence throughout the region in its wider proxy battle with its rival Saudi Arabia, an important U.S. ally, and now sponsors or heavily influences governments or key political forces in Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad, as well as Sanaa.
The complex web of tribal and sectarian forces scrambling alliances and traditional alliances in Yemen represent the region in microcosm and reflects massive challenges facing U.S. officials in search of a working policy.
“We don’t have a lot of leverage in there at the moment,” Seche said.
“There are so many forces and counter forces at play — none of which we or anyone controls effectively,” he said.
“There are currents and issues and long standing hostility they are going to have to work themselves to some extent.”
