Early 2016 primary polling shows a wide-open Republican race. We weigh in on the pollster debate about the ‘margin of error.’ And social media platform use varies by race. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, February 4, 2015.
NEW EARLY PRIMARY POLLS IN FL, OH & PA – Quinnipiac University: “Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is emerging as the Republican front-runner in an early look at possible presidential primaries in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but even with Mitt Romney out of the race, Gov. Bush’s only clear dominance is in his native Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In contrast, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the choice of more than 50 percent of Democrats in each state…The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. ‘Mitt Romney’s withdrawal from the presidential race, at first blush, has no statistical benefit in Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania for any candidate for the Republican presidential nomination,’ said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.'” [Quinnipiac]
Not so fast… – In recent weeks, HuffPollster has pointed to a chorus of recommendations to ignore early trial heat polling because of its lack of predictive accuracy. Those columns have focused mainly on general election match-ups between Democratic and Republican candidates, but similar advice applies to early presidential primary measurements, particularly those in states that hold their primaries toward the middle or end of the primary season. The Florida and Ohio primaries will likely occur in March 2016, and Pennsylvania in April, following earlier contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states that will narrow the field and likely scramble whatever candidate preferences exit beforehand. The results of the Quinnipiac polling show no clear leader outside of Florida, and even there, home state favorite Jeb Bush is currently the choice of just 32 percent of registered Republicans. For now, the trial-heat polling alone suggests a wide open GOP race.
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-Iowa’s GOP caucus voters are not big fans of Beyonce. [HuffPost]
-Vox maps the nation’s coffee preferences. [Vox]
