David Williams: John, my top 3 most likely to win are Bush, Walker, and Paul. Which one of those three do you think would most likely win the straw poll?
John King: Great question, David. The Paul family has a good track record at CPAC straw polls. I’m interested this year to see if the Walker momentum of late carries over to this event. What an interesting range of GOP potential candidates — just in past couple hours Dr. Carson, Governor Christie and Ted Cruz, among others, very well received.
Mark Leon House: Have you noticed that the 2016 conventions are identical to the 1936 conventions. With that being said, do you think Democrats will have the same advantage as they did in 1936 or do you think that Republicans will make gains on their 2014 midterm victories?
John King: Wow Mark — I hadn’t gone back that far! where conventions are held is less and less an issue in the TV age, I think, but there are obvious reasons the GOP chose Ohio — so hard to win without it — and the DEMS chose PA — some HRC family ties and fits with their “middle class” political focus ….the presidential versus midterm analysis is one of the most fascinating questions in today’s politics. President Obama won two convincing wins with presidential turnout – and it is impossible not to conclude the GOP’s problems with non white voters are a big factor. Yet look at the ruby red midterm years — and the overall gains of the GOP at the House, Senate, Governors and state legislative level the past six years. Almost two Americas. Democrats are counting on 2016 to bring back the demographic edge. We shall see.
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Cj Farris: Hi John, Let’s just assume it is Clinton for the Democrats in 2016. What do you think her chances are on winning the traditional swing states?
John King Hi CJ, well that is THE question isn’t it. if you look at the last six presidential elections – Democrats have carried 18 states with a combined 240 electoral votes. this so-called “blue wall” if unchanged would leave the Democratic nominee just 30 EV shy of winning. Florida alone would do it. So Republicans have to change that “wall” and the math to win. Does HRC automatically get those 18 – of course not. But Republicans have some work to do to improve their presidential performance. History says after a two term president the other party almost always wins. Democrats think they have a demographic advantage. We will see in the not too distant future.
Timothy Olubusoye: Why is no one saying anything about Paul Ryan he was considered a major contender hopeful after the unsuccessful run with Governor Romney in 2016?
John King Hi Timothy, Chairman Ryan says he won’t run for President in 2016 — so he is out of that group. But his Ways and Means Committee is central to questions of taxes and spending and other big economic challenges so he will be front and center in the big debates of the next two years and beyond. A big question is how long he decides he wants to stay in Washington. Not too long, he says. But we aren’t sure exactly what that means yet.
